Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 75258.964004 79503.141067 83750.564441 88317.139075 93084.911535 97912.817518 103168.097696
2026-01-11 68353.533611 74820.004378 81475.231427 88827.290708 96712.005792 104904.657894 114051.338632
2026-01-18 63171.224140 71133.327472 79511.682636 88966.137419 99318.629209 110290.215413 122777.348461
2026-01-25 59217.749133 68292.624879 78021.342866 89195.396520 101642.398941 115048.689805 130546.800799
2026-02-01 55789.296167 65712.365295 76526.297492 89140.292738 103401.945172 118978.236311 137227.173027
2026-02-08 53379.328115 64070.572869 75892.810008 89872.564167 105886.173016 123589.755854 144572.804632
2026-02-15 50836.640210 62107.526085 74741.792970 89872.550541 107415.004823 127026.510879 150518.504345
2026-02-22 49315.614243 61220.624390 74730.702473 91095.398964 110273.671541 131927.343732 158109.433109
2026-03-01 47727.256794 60158.570070 74431.521993 91907.123249 112595.550386 136171.908222 164928.574620
2026-03-08 45797.450595 58594.845116 73456.683503 91844.554595 113827.232311 139103.437297 170192.816041
2026-03-15 44211.716213 57371.386496 72819.370966 92121.102699 115408.651980 142409.094739 175878.458998
2026-03-22 43322.253747 56949.546659 73104.513306 93470.652509 118247.069554 147190.319663 183319.603777
2026-03-29 42269.383958 56295.734081 73089.079115 94450.293702 120653.310024 151492.579326 190256.309472
2026-04-05 41103.195582 55454.986862 72806.699910 95073.309171 122609.442025 155254.959939 196566.807733
2026-04-12 39789.316041 54377.205837 72186.187862 95239.240206 123976.526090 158290.729961 202001.661358
2026-04-19 38595.227552 53407.062741 71659.760576 95485.973655 125415.566248 161398.879895 207525.267451
2026-04-26 37330.587503 52300.864407 70921.002038 95428.711073 126447.324552 163990.989885 212414.463662
2026-05-03 36513.652885 51746.852032 70857.458292 96203.069391 128504.939193 167842.600477 218865.537632
2026-05-10 35399.702222 50764.316620 70210.551093 96203.106671 129564.067851 170445.931031 223774.463611
2026-05-17 34901.495482 50579.565363 70578.768278 97495.730566 132259.184380 175094.637917 231251.723621
2026-05-24 34246.505079 50160.832846 70622.508124 98353.669374 134392.975868 179045.146841 237876.471720
2026-05-31 33242.035674 49238.049228 69976.366194 98287.542013 135321.378768 181469.097113 242586.697360
2026-06-07 32428.741846 48550.761471 69618.855944 98579.818736 136698.663813 184456.182757 248015.727278